1. War Damn Peter

    “Boyhood” will win Best Picture- in my humble opinion. “Birdman” is too weird for the Academy. The only recent comparison was “The Artist” and that won in a much weaker year. Iñárritu might win (Two Mexican directors in a row!) because “Birdman” was more visually… directed, but even then I see a split like last year. 3/4 of the acting front runners should be able to put Oscar winner on their resume. I’m still calling Bradley Cooper for Best Actor, because I want at least one upset in the major Awards and he seems most likely. Also, “The Theory of Everything” should win nothing!
    I can also see “Foxcatcher” win Best Hair and Make-up because the Academy seems to prefer realistic make-up (See “The Iron Lady”, “Ed Wood”, fucking “Driving Miss Daisy”). I know there are dozens of wins to counter those, but I can see them fawning over Steve Carrell’s horrible fake nose.

    • Alex Bean

      A Cooper win would genuinely surprise me at this point. I think American Sniper became too political for them to give it a big award, though there is a lot of goodwill built towards him. Plus, Redmayne has just the baitiest role imaginable (from what I can tell).

      Boyhood winning would not surprise me, but the way Birdman has dominated the guilds is really telling. I also think the preferential ballot may be leading us towards these pattern of self-congratulation in Hollywood. Everyone likes being told they’re special.

      • Jason Fabeck

        Dowd’s comments on AV Club today on what Cooper brought to Sniper was really what I’ve been trying to say when i thought it was an interesting character study. People hear that and think you support the actual man and how he was and that you loved the movie but I pretty much hate everything about it except intense parts of his performance. I could see it sneaking in ahead of Redmayne. Redmayne is such Hollywood royalty that he will win it in the next 20 years at some point and I think there were better performances than him this year.

  2. War Damn Peter

    Eddie Redmayne is good and REALLY acting (I imagine this movie sucked to make for him), but, yes, this may be the baitiest role in the history of film. I’m pretty sure he’ll win, if for no other reason than there always has to be one winner playing a real life person especially if they’re an icon.

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